This is pt.2. Pt.1 covers the raw materials overview. The first post catalogued what AI hardware is made from. This one tries to answer a more specific question: where in the supply chain does the actual geopolitical leverage sit? The assumption most people carry is that it sits at extraction. For almost every mineral that matters for AI hardware, China’s share of refining and processing is substantially higher than its share of mining. Often dramatically so. ...
Predicting probability of success (POS) in biotech should start with biology, not valuation. Evaluating the mechanism of action (MOA) of therapeutic targets, specifically differentiating between upstream and downstream interventions. Systematically analysing how the position of a target within a biological pathway influences POS. Most models overweight market size, management quality, or phase transition statistics while underweighting whether the mechanism actually has durable control over the disease system. The key question is where the target sits within the network. ...
I want to talk about a rabbit hole I have fallen down since reading a paper on The Promises and Predicaments of Federated Learning in Healthcare. Last year, I had the privilege of working with an awesome team, we explored ideas applying machine learning to tackle data interoperability challenges within our healthcare system. The problem: disparate data formats, strict privacy regulations, and the sheer volume of sensitive patient information scattered across multiple institutions. Our thesis was that the near-term impact of data interoperability is obvious, time saved and admin (huge burden to the NHS) reduced. We validated this with our study across thousands of hospital reported EHR systems, and with firsthand NHS clinical experience in the team. But the bigger picture? The data unlock. ...
Attachments Scenario Impact of AI.pdf
LLMs like GPT-o1 are demonstrating remarkable capabilities in knowledge and reasoning. Solving challenging mathematical problems, assisting scientists in writing proofs, retrieving related works, generating code, and discovering patterns. These feats hint at a future where AI doesn’t just follow human instructions but contribute creatively to human endeavours. The Promise and the Question A growing number of researchers propose autonomous agents that can generate and validate new ideas independently. CrewAI is a framework designed to build autonomous multi-agent systems that can generate and validate ideas without human intervention. ...
Attachments TALOS pitch deck.pdf
Conversations with engineers and insights from the TypeScript Congress 2023 highlight its growing prominence. JetBrains’ Developer Survey shows TypeScript’s user share has tripled from 12% in 2017 to 34% in 2022 and 2023. TypeScript is no longer just a frontend language. It is becoming the orchestration layer for AI native applications. Java dominated the infrastructure era of the internet. It became a standard that triggered a massive retooling across industries, leading to the rise of Databricks, Confluent, and Atlassian. Java’s influence was particularly profound in data infrastructure, underpinning projects like Spark, Kafka, Hadoop, and Cassandra. ...