Billionaires, Biotech, and the Quest for a Blockbuster Drug. I read this book while advising a fund on an activist takeover of Ziopharm Oncology (now TCRT) as a university student. My role was the science; I had no visibility into what was happening at the board level. Reading Blood and Money gave me the other camera angle on what I had been inside, and what I had been too junior to see. ...
I spent a couple of weeks building a model to predict which oncology drugs would advance from Phase 2 to Phase 3. It didn’t work. Walk-forward AUC sat between 0.50 and 0.55 across every feature combination I tried: pathway position, publication sentiment, genetic evidence, novel-MOA flags, sponsor identity. None of them generalised out of sample. But there was a chart I liked too much to let die at the same time. ...
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REAL OPTIONS IN BIOTECHNOLOGICAL FIRMS VALUATION. AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN FIRMS. Attachments Ziopharm Oncology Thesis.pdf