Superforcasting
In 2011, IARPA, the research arm of the US intelligence community, launched a massive competition to identify cutting-edge methods to forecast geopolitical events. Four years, 500 questions, and over a million forecasts later, the Good Judgment Project (GJP) led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania emerged as the undisputed victor in the tournament. GJP’s forecasts were so accurate that they even outperformed those of intelligence analysts with access to classified data. One of the biggest discoveries of GJP were the Superforecasters: GJP research found compelling evidence that some people are exceptionally skilled at assigning realistic probabilities to possible outcomes even on topics outside their primary subject-matter training. ...